Polymarket · live
What the crowd actually thinks — real-time probabilities
The world's largest prediction market condensed into one dashboard. Politics, sports, crypto, tech: what global consensus rates as true, today. No vig, no margin — just YES-share price = probability.
Active events
4,786
59,363 markets
24h volume
$45.8M
$599.3M liquidity
Top gainer 24h
+93.5pp
GNK Dinamo Zagreb vs. FC Thun - More Markets
Top loser 24h
-93.5pp
GNK Dinamo Zagreb vs. FC Thun - More Markets
Live price moves
auto-updatingLiveprice moves · auto-refresh
Microsoft (MSFT) Q4 Azure revenue growth (constant currency)?
No · $28 · 7min ago
70%
▼ 20.6pp
Microsoft (MSFT) Q4 Azure revenue growth (constant currency)?
Yes · $28 · 7min ago
30%
▲ 20.6pp
Meta (META) Q2 average price per ad growth?
Yes · $305 · 7min ago
33%
▲ 10.5pp
Meta (META) Q2 average price per ad growth?
No · $305 · 7min ago
68%
▼ 10.5pp
Meta (META) Q2 average price per ad growth?
No · $305 · 7min ago
71%
▼ 3.5pp
Meta (META) Q2 average price per ad growth?
Yes · $305 · 7min ago
30%
▲ 3.5pp
Vertiv (VRT) Q2 adjusted operating margin?
Yes · $52 · 7min ago
36%
▲ 2.8pp
Vertiv (VRT) Q2 adjusted operating margin?
No · $52 · 7min ago
64%
▼ 2.8pp
Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?
No · $604 · 7min ago
51%
▲ 3.0pp
Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?
Yes · $604 · 7min ago
50%
▼ 3.0pp
What will Trump say in July?
No · $604 · 7min ago
90%
▲ 8.6pp
What will Trump say in July?
Yes · $604 · 7min ago
11%
▼ 8.6pp
What will Trump say in July?
Yes · $604 · 7min ago
17%
▼ 4.0pp
What will Trump say in July?
No · $604 · 7min ago
83%
▲ 4.0pp
What will Trump say in July?
No · $604 · 7min ago
55%
▲ 3.0pp
What will Trump say in July?
Yes · $604 · 7min ago
45%
▼ 3.0pp
What will Trump say in July?
Yes · $604 · 7min ago
43%
▼ 2.5pp
What will Trump say in July?
No · $604 · 7min ago
57%
▲ 2.5pp
What will Trump say in July?
No · $604 · 7min ago
56%
▲ 2.5pp
What will Trump say in July?
Yes · $604 · 7min ago
44%
▼ 2.5pp
What will Trump say in July?
No · $604 · 7min ago
73%
▲ 1.5pp
What will Trump say in July?
No · $604 · 7min ago
67%
▲ 1.5pp
What will Trump say in July?
Yes · $604 · 7min ago
33%
▼ 1.5pp
What will Trump say in July?
Yes · $604 · 7min ago
27%
▼ 1.5pp
Big movers alert · 24h
See all (1m → 7d) →▲ Gainers 24h·click to open
▼ Losers 24h
Whale tape — who buys, who sells
See all + positions →BUYGrave-CoconutNongshim Esports AcademyLoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Challenge Group3.5K @99¢$3.4K
BUYShameless-CirculationNongshim Esports AcademyLoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Challenge Group590 @97¢$570
BUYKosher-RefuseNongshim Red ForceLoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group5.0K @62¢$3.1K
BUYIrresponsible-AutumnDenis ShapovalovLos Cabos Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Rinky Hijikata597 @99¢$591
Abnormal movements
trading spike vs baseline158855×spike
Which party will win the House in 2026?
base $0/h → $58.9K/h · $51.5K 24h
Behind the spike — biggest trades (2h)
28971×spike
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
base $5/h → $42.7K/h · $35.4K 24h
Behind the spike — biggest trades (2h)
414×spike
LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Trial Group
base $2.9K/h → $39.3K/h · $45.9K 24h
Behind the spike — biggest trades (2h)
56.9×spike
Los Cabos Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Rinky Hijikata
base $41.0K/h → $283.7K/h · $430.7K 24h
Behind the spike — biggest trades (2h)
66.0×spike
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Challenge Group
base $13.9K/h → $82.8K/h · $126.2K 24h
Behind the spike — biggest trades (2h)
74.7×spike
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group
base $7.8K/h → $36.4K/h · $103.1K 24h
Behind the spike — biggest trades (2h)
83.9×spike
Elon Musk # tweets July 27 - July 29, 2026?
base $9.1K/h → $35.2K/h · $242.3K 24h
Behind the spike — biggest trades (2h)
Browse by category
Trending now
top 6 by 24h volumePolitics closed
Fed Decision in July?
No change
78%
25 bps increase
22%
50+ bps increase
0%
$14.4M · 24h5 mkts
Sports closed
LoL: DN SOOPers vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - KeSPA Cup Last Chance Qualifier
DN SOOPers
100%
HANJIN BRION
0%
$2.3M · 24h24 mkts
Politics closed
Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
Abiy Ahmed
95%
Alesa Mengesha
2%
Gedion Timothewos
1%
$2.0M · 24h33 mkts
Crypto⏱ 2d
What price will Bitcoin hit in July?
↑ 65,000
100%
↑ 65,000
100%
↓ 65,000
100%
$1.3M · 24h29 mkts
Politics⏱ 1mo
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
August 31
62%
August 14
56%
July 31
43%
$1.1M · 24h5 mkts
Sports closed
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster (BO3) - KeSPA Cup Last Chance Qualifier
Kiwoom DRX
100%
KT Rolster
0%
$1.0M · 24h24 mkts
More active markets
24 sorted by volumeUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by...?
July 31 · 6 mkts
Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics
Athletics · 23 mkts
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
No · 1 mkts
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
July 25 · 16 mkts
NK Celje vs. KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë - More Markets
Under · 34 mkts
Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
Harry Kane · 89 mkts
Heart of Midlothian FC vs. SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz - More Markets
Under · 34 mkts
GNK Dinamo Zagreb vs. FC Thun - More Markets
FC Thun · 34 mkts
Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje - More Markets
Under · 34 mkts
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?
No · 2 mkts
Los Cabos Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Rinky Hijikata
Denis Shapovalov · 16 mkts
What price will Ethereum hit in July?
↑ 1,900 · 33 mkts
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Gavin Newsom · 128 mkts
UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
Team A · 42 mkts
Elon Musk # tweets July 24 - July 31, 2026?
200-219 · 26 mkts
Kuopion PS vs. Sabah FK - More Markets
Under · 34 mkts
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
August 31 · 8 mkts
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance · 128 mkts
NBA: 2027 Champion
Oklahoma City Thunder · 36 mkts
LoL: Barça eSports vs GIANTX iTero (BO3) - LES Regular Season
Barça eSports · 23 mkts
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No · 1 mkts
Largest Company end of July?
Apple · 29 mkts
Dota 2: No Hoodwink vs PuckChamp (BO3) - EPL Masters Group B
No Hoodwink · 21 mkts
Elon Musk # tweets July 27 - July 29, 2026?
40-64 · 10 mkts